UCL possibility Chelsea 5%, Liverpool 15%… Son Heung-min form recovery Tottenham?

ESPN said on the 8th (Korean time) that Liverpool, who finished runner-up in the European Football Federation (UEFA) Champions League (UCL) last season, Chelsea, the 2021 champion, and AC Milan, the winner of last season’s Serie A, turned on the red light to advance to the UCL next season. Reported.

ESPN first pointed out the current situation of 19 teams in the top 5 European leagues among the 32 teams that advanced to the UCL group stage. Among the 19 teams consisting of 5 Bundesliga teams (with the Frankfurt Europa League victory), 4 teams each in the Premier League, La Liga and Serie A, and 2 teams in League 1, Bayern Munich, Barcelona, ​​Real Madrid, Napoli and Paris Saint-Germain ( The media saw that the probability of advancing to the UCL next season for the six teams of PSG) and Manchester City was more than 98%. Inter Milan, RB Leipzig, Borussia Dortmund, and Marseille 4 teams also have more than 70% probability of stability. On the other hand, the three teams Bayer Leverkusen, Juventus, and Sevilla pointed out that there is almost no hope at less than 2%.

Now there are only 6 teams left. ESPN predicted the fate of these teams by rating their own Panic Index. In terms of fear (panic), 1 means ‘comfort’ and 5 means ‘red alert’.

Currently, they are in 9th place in the Premier League. The gap with 4th place (Newcastle), which is the last line to advance to the UCL, is 10 points.
ESPN predicted a 5% chance for Chelsea to finish in the top 4 in the league. The chance of winning the UCL this year is 5%.

Compared to last season, the team dropped from 3rd to 13th in points per game and from 4th to 12th in expected points per shot. The points conceded per game, which shows the solidity of the defense, went down from 3rd to 4th.

The defense has gotten a little worse, but it’s still decent. But the attack collapsed. Although they recruited a number of young strikers, it is expected that it will take quite a while before they become organized.

The panic index is the highest level 5.


Currently, they are 10th in the league standings, and the gap with 4th is 11 points.
The probability of finishing in the top 4 in the league is 15%, and the probability of winning the UCL this year is 5%.

Scores per game dropped from 2nd to 5th last season, and expected points per shot also plummeted from 3rd to 12th. The number of goals allowed per game dropped significantly from 1st to 12th.

After losing winger Sadio Mane, Liverpool spent most of their transfer budget on Darwin Núñez last summer and Cody Gakpo this winter.

We expected the same performance as the previous season from old players such as Jordan Henderson (32), Fabinho (29), Thiago Alcantara (31) and James Milner (37), but Henderson and Thiago went down with injuries at the end of August last year. Like Chelsea, it seems that the newly acquired attackers still need time to melt into the team.

The panic index is 5, the highest level.

Currently 5th in the league. 1 point difference from 4th place. 37% chance of finishing in 4th place. 5% chance of winning the UCL this season.

Despite Son Heung-min’s sluggishness, the offense (average 1.82 goals per game last season, 1.86 goals this year) is similar, but the defense has declined. The run rate dropped from 4th to 13th.

Although he averaged 1.87 points per game last season. This season, the pace has dropped a little with 1.77 points. Liverpool and Chelsea have fallen, but Arsenal is on the rise, Manchester United is regaining its former glory, and Newcastle, backed by oil money, has risen to the top, and the competition for the top four is still fierce.

For Tottenham, the decline in defense-related indicators is an unsettling factor. The offense does not seem to be much of a problem as Son Heung-min (3 goals and 1 assist in the last 7 games) shows signs of reviving his form. The recent 1-0 wins over Fulham and Man City in two consecutive league matches could be a hint of improved defensive power, and it came at the right time. Six of the next seven matches will be against a team ranked 13th or lower in the league. If solid defense and attack power are improved, Tottenham’s chances of advancing to the Champions League can be greatly improved along with a winning streak. 카지노사이트

The panic index has three levels.

▽Eintracht Frankfurt▽
Currently 5th in the league. The gap with 4th place is 1 point. There is a 45% chance of being in the top 4 that can advance to the UCL, and a 1% chance of winning the UCL this year.

Panic index is 3.

▽AC Milan▽
Currently in 6th place in the league, there is no difference in points from 4th place. The probability of finishing in the top 4 is 50% and the chance of winning the UCL this year is 1%.

Considering the shocking sluggishness of Juventus, it is not easy to understand the current situation of AC Milan, the main character of the scudetto last season. It shows weaknesses in the defense, such as allowing 1.4 goals per game (13th) and allowing 0.10 points per shot (13th), but it is getting worse after the departure of main goalkeeper Mike Mennan due to injury. If coach Stefano Pioli finds a solution, the 4th place pull-up is expected to be possible.

Nevertheless, the panic index is 5.

▽Atletico Madrid▽
is currently 4th in the league and 3 points ahead of 5th place. The chance of advancing to the UCL next season is 59%.
After the World Cup break, with 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss, 2.1 points per game, it regained its solid form befitting the club’s reputation.

The panic index is 2, the lowest among the six teams.

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